Clifford Derrick’s Weblog

Raila Maintains the lead


Raila Odinga

Picture: courtesy of The Standard Newspapers 

On the lead

Kenyan opposition Presidential candidate Raila Odinga has for the fouth time maintained his lead in the opinion poll as the most preferred candidate in the coming general election. Writes, Clifford Derrick

 Raila still leading

According the latest opinion poll released today by the Steadman Group, Odinga still leads the pack with 45 per cent, President Kibaki 41 per cent with Kalonzo Musyoka surged 3 points to 11 percent.  The poll was conducted between November 3 and 7 and interviewed 2,712 potential voters drawn from every district.

ODM -SA questions polls credibility

Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) in South Africa appreciated the fact that Odinga is still leading but questioned the rationale behind the alteration of the methodology employed by the Steadman group. The members also questioned the reason why Kibaki was the only candidate whose popularity did not tally with the rest of other candidates. According to the polls, ODM  Presidential candidate and his party vehicle stood at 45 per cent. Kalonzo Musyoka had 11 per cent same as his ODM-Kenya party. On the other side, Kibaki scored 41 per cent in contrast to his PNU which was rated at 33 per cent.

Where are the provincial ratings?

There is also the question of provincial rating that was lacking in the latest opinion polls. One wonders why the poll masters decided not to provide the breakdown on how the presidential candidates faired in the provinces, said Alfonse Ouya, businessman and a member of ODM-SA secretariat.
ODM SA chair, Professor Fred Otieno and his secretary general said nothing will stop the movement from capturing the leadership however much the government may try to block it. They said that attempts by the government to influence the opinion polls were a wider scheme to rig the elections a head of time.
There are many methods of election rigging, some of these machinations are a demonstration of a wide plan to justify an already rigged election, but the Kenyans will resist any kind of undemocratic machinations to deny them their constitutional rights to choose their desired leaders,” said Prof. Otieno.

Kibaki campaign in disarray

According to a publication by the Standard newspaper, Kibaki’s campaign machines are in disarray. The Kibaki tena lobby group, whose secretariat represents the current face of his government, as seen from their tribal affiliations, is ridden with confusion, disorganization and lack of vision and strategy, to say the least. Click here for more.
One wonders therefore the main reason why a poorly performing candidate on the ground can post a steady increase on the polls. Read Hon Ngilu’s reaction to the polls.

No miracles for Kibaki

With less than two months to the general election, pundits argue that it will not be easy for Kibaki to turn the tables by changing the public opinion. Odinga’s constant lead has sent strong indication that he is with the people and will not relent in his quest to take the leadership of Kenya.


This message has caused panic in the Kibaki’s camp with his strategies running helter skelter like headless chicken in a bid to damage control their poorly performing man.

The desperation of Kibaki’s man explains the reason why they have resorted on a pre-election rigging by manipulating voters roll from Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) strong holds. It is not long ago since Odinga revealed that the government had sneaked in six individuals into the commission’s headquarters to electronically and manually manipulate the voters roll in a bid to pre-rig the elections. Odinga claimed that another group was also busy working at the Attorney generals office to manipulate the list of dead people who are to be included in the voters roll.

Rising popularity

Odinga’s steady popularity has been attributed to his well articulated policies that he intends to introduce to Kenya once he becomes the president. Majority of Kenyans, he argues leave below poverty line because the previous governments have decided to centralise public resources which they misuse to benefit themselves at the expense of the tax payers.

Team work

Speaking during his visit to South Africa, Odinga defended the majimbo (Federal) system of governance which he said was being attacked by the rich because it is pro-poor. Odinga said that members of the Pentagon which include Musalia Mudavadi – his running mate, William Ruto Najib Balala and Joseph Nyagah will work as a team to lead the country in realising meaningful change.

Give us your rational views on this subject. Post your comments and we shall publish it here…..


November 9, 2007 - Posted by | Politics


  1. Hi Clifford,
    Thanks for the above work. Could you also give us an analysis/report on Raila’s meetings with S.A Government officials during his recent visits. I’d like to know where our intergovt relations will go if Raila wins.

    Comment by Julius Orowe | November 11, 2007 | Reply

  2. Very rich and objective analysis. Rigging the election is a real threat and ODM needs a counter strategy that should be executed from now on. On another note,could you post ODM manifesto or excerpts therefrom on this website?

    Comment by Peter | November 13, 2007 | Reply

  3. Thanks for your comments and observations. I will provide the details of Raila’s meeting with the South African government. I will also post ODM manifesto on to this weblog. You are also encouraged to write articles and email it to my email address at: I will then publish them and provide you with the byline. Lets keep on blogging, this is is our space.

    Comment by cliffordderrick | November 13, 2007 | Reply

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